[翻译]How To Make the Right Choice -- 如何做个正确的决定
[quote]
Which job should you take? What car should you buy? Should you ask him to marry you? Are you ready for another baby? Is this house right for you, or should you keep looking before you make an offer?
Life is full of hard choices, and the bigger they are and the more options we have, the harder they get.
[/quote]
你该选择哪份工作？你该买什么车？是否对你的男友催婚呢？是不是做好再要一个小孩的准备？房子是否合适？还是要在下订单之前在看看？
生活充满了很多难以抉择的事情，尤其当抉择越重大，我们可以选择的情况越多时，作出决定就更加的困难。
[quote]
As it happens, our brains are fairly binary. They can react very quickly when presented with two options, especially when one’s clearly better. Stand here and drown in the rising waters or jump onto that big rock and be safe? Easy choice.
When presented with more options, though, we choke up. Jump onto the rock or climb the tree? We don’t know which is clearly better, and research shows that most people will not choose at all when presented with several equally good options.
[/quote]
碰巧的是，我们的大脑倾向于作二选一的选择题。当只有两个选择，尤其在其中一个选择明显有利的情况下，我们的大脑可以非常敏捷的做出反应。是要站在原地被上涨的水淹死，还是跳到岩石上保证安全，这是很容易选择的事情。
然而，当我们面对有更多选择的时候，我们就迟疑了。是要跳上石头，还是要爬上树?研究表明，大部分的人，当面对几个同等有利的选项时，很难明确究竟哪个选择会更好。
[quote]
Practice, experience, and rules of thumbs can help us to make those split-second decisions (for example, “When in doubt, go left” has done pretty well for me so far). Fortunately we don’t normally face immediate, do-or-die decisions – we usually have the luxury of working through a decision.
[/quote]
实践、经验和经验法则可能帮助我们做出那些瞬间决定。幸运的是，我们不会经常需要去直接决定生死的决定，我们一般拥有充裕的时间和准备来做出一个决定。
[quote][b]Getting Past Pros and Cons 通过利弊来做出决定[/b]
The old chestnut of decision-making is the list of pros and cons. You make two columns on a piece of paper and write down all the positive things that will come of making a choice in one column and all the negative things in the other. In the end, the side with the most entries wins.
But this strategy doesn’t take into account the different weight that each positive or negative might have. If one of your pros is “will make a million dollars” and one of your cons is “might get a hangnail”, they don’t exactly cancel each other out.
Some people counter this problem by assigning point values to each item in their list. A huge income might be worth +20 points, while a tiny risk might be only –1. This helps make a more realistic assessment of your options.
But pros and cons aren’t always apparent or obvious, and the whole list-making process doesn’t sit well with many people – especially impulsive, “seat-of-the-pants” who might feel unnaturally hampered by the formality of the pro and con list.
[/quote]
列出利弊是个古老的方法。你可以在纸上画两列，在其中一列写下如果做了决定的有利面，在另一列写下坏处。最后，根据利弊两方的多少来作决定。
但是这个方案没有办法衡量每个利弊的权重。例如，有个好处是"可以挣到百万美金"，有个坏处是“可能手指头会有倒刺”，这样的利弊是无法对等，相互抵消的。
有人提出对每个利弊加权的解决方案。能够带来巨额收入的权重为＋20，一个极小的风险的权重为-1.这样可以帮我对每个选择做出更理性化的判断。
但是，利弊不总是那么的显而易见的，而且列出利弊的过程也不适合大部分的人，尤其是那些比较容易冲动的.凭直觉做事的人会因为规规矩矩的列出利弊而感到不自然或者别扭。
[quote]
Here are some other strategies for making big decisions. Not all of them will work for every person or for every decision, but they all have something to offer to help you clarify your thinking and avoid “decision paralysis” while the water rises around you.
[/quote]
还有一些其他的策略来帮助作出决定。这些策略并不能适用于每个人或者每一个决定，但是它们对你理清你的想法会起到一定的帮助，同时，可以防止“思维麻痹”，当你已经被水包围了。
[quote][b]Analyze outcomes 分析结果[/b]
Working through a big decision can give us a kind of tunnel vision, where we get so focused on the immediate consequences of the decision at hand that we don’t think about the eventual outcomes we expect or desire.
When making a choice, then, it pays to take some time to consider the outcome you expect. Consider each option and ask the following questions:
* What is the probable outcome of this choice?
* What outcomes are highly unlikely?
* What are the likely outcomes of not choosing this one?
* What would be the outcome of doing the exact opposite?
Thinking in terms of long-term outcomes – and broadening your thinking to include negative outcomes – can help you find clarity and direction while facing your big decision.
[/quote]
通常，当我们在做一个重大决定的时候，我们的视野会边窄，我们把我们的注意力放在决定产生的最直接后果，却忽略了我们所期待的最终结果。
当你在作决定的时候，需要花点时间来考虑，作这个决定，你想要的最终结果是什么。考虑每一种可能并思考下面的几个问题:
* 在这种情况或者这个选择最可能产生的结果是什么？
* 最不可能的结果是什么?
* 如果不选择该情况最可能的结果是什么?
* 如果反过来作的结果会是什么?
多从长远的角度来考虑、多考虑可能的不好结果，会帮助你明确方向，当你面对重大决定的时候。
[quote][b]Ask why – five times 多问几次为什么[/b]
The Five Whys are a problem-solving technique invented by Sakichi Toyoda, the founder of Toyota. When something goes wrong, you ask “why?” five times. By asking why something failed, over and over, you eventually get to the root cause.
Why did my car break down? A spark plug failed. Why? It was fouled. Why? I didn’t get a tune-up. Why? I was too busy playing GTA4. Why? Because I’m miserable and lonely and the people in the game are the only ones that really love me.
See? Your car broke down because you’re a sociopath.
Although developed as a problem-solving technique, the Five Whys can also help you determine whether a choice you’re considering is in line with your core values. For instance:
Why should I take this job? It pays well and offers me a chance to grow. Why is that important? Because I want to and not just have a string of meaningless jobs. Why? Because I want my life to have meaning. Why? So I can be happy. Why? Because that’s what’s important in life.
Notice that you sometimes have to change how you’ ask “why” to keep the questions focused inward rather than outward to irrelevant external factors. It wouldn’t do any good to ask “Why does this job pay well and offer me a chance to grow” since the important thing is that it does, not why it does.
[/quote]
The Five Whys是由Toyota公司的创始人Sakichi Toyoda提出的解决问题的方法。当某事出错的时候，你要多问几次为什么。不断的追问为什么会出错，为什么为失败，最终，你会找到问题的症结所在。
为什么我的车子出故障？因为火花塞坏了。为什么火花塞坏了？因为它被弄脏了.为什么被弄脏了？因为我没有去调节。为什么呢？因为我忙于完GTA4的游戏。为什么？因为我感到痛苦和孤独，只有游戏中的那个人可以理解我。
知道了吧？你的车之所以会出故障，是因为你反社会。
虽然The Five Whys的方法是为了解决问题而发明的,但是The Five Whys方法可以帮助你检验你正在考虑的选择是否符合你的核心价值观.
例如：为什么我要选择这份工作？因为待遇不错同时可以给我一个成长的空间。为什么这些很重要？因为我想成就一番事业，我不想作没有意义的工作。为什么？因为我希望我的生活有意义？为什么呢？因为这样我会感到快乐。为什么会感到快乐呢？因为那是我决定生命中重要的东西。
值得注意的是，有时候你必须去改变你问为什么的方式，以保证你关注的焦点能够集中，而不是向往扩散到一些无相关的因素上。例如：“为什么这份工作会提供不错的待遇跟提供给我一个成长的机会”,这样的问题是没有什么好处。因为，我们关注的是这个因素是会产生的结果，而不是它为什么会发生的原因。
[quote]
[b]Follow your instincts 相信你的直觉[/b]
Research shows that people who make decisions quickly, even when lacking information, tend to be more satisfied with their decisions than people who research and carefully weight their options. Some of this difference is simply in the lower level of stress the decision created, but much of it comes from the very way our brains work.
The conscious mind can only hold between 5 and 9 distinct thoughts at any given mind. That means that any complex problem with more than (on average) 7 factors is going to overflow the conscious mind’s ability to function effectively – leading to poor choices.
Our unconscious, however, is much better at juggling and working through complex problems. People who “go with their gut” are actually trusting the work their unconscious mind has already done, rather than second-guessing it and relying on their conscious mind’s much more limited ability to deal with complex situations.
[/quote]
调查表明那些快速作出决定，甚至在缺乏信息的人，往往比那些经过深思熟虑的人更满意他们的决定。这种差异，有些是来自我们对自己作出的决定的重视程度，但是大部分这只是我们自己的感觉而已。
一般来说，在保持情形的情况下，人的大脑一次性只能考虑5到9种不同的情况。这意味着当我们面对超过7种(平均)可能因素的复杂问题时，我们很难保证我们能有清醒的思维来作出有效的判断，从而导致了，我们做了不好的选择。
然而，我们在无意识的状态下更容易解决复杂的问题。凭感觉做事的人，往往更倾向于相信他们的直觉，而不是依靠逻辑判断，来预测结果和作出判断。
[quote]
[b]The Choice is Yours 决定是你自己的，为自己的决定负责[/b]
Whatever process you use to arrive at your decision, your satisfaction with your decision will depend largely on whether you claim ownership of your choices. If you feel pressured into a choice or not in control of the conditions, you’ll find even positive outcomes colored negatively. On the other hand, taking full responsibility for your choices can make even failure feel like a success – you’ll know you did your best and you’ll have gained valuable experience for nest time.
What strategies do you use? I know I’ve left out a lot of sound techniques — share your own decision-making strategies in the comments.
[/quote]
无论你根据什么方式或者采用某种手段来作出决定，你对你作出的决定的满意度，很大程度上，取决于你对你是否明确这是不是你自己的想要的决定。当你感觉到压力或者无法控制情况，你甚至会发现正面有利的结果都会被带上负面的效果。另一方面，对自己作出的决定负责，就算失败了，你也会觉得这是另一种成功，因为，你知道你尽力了，而且，你可以从中获得宝贵的经验。
你会选用什么策略了？我知道我忽略了很多合理的技术细节，你可以在回复中分享你是如何作出决定的。
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