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Truths About Intuition
人类的直觉有多准？

Despite intuition’s ubiquity, we harbor many mistaken intuitions about intuition.Here we’ll consider some facets of unconscious processing.

1.Intuition Is Highly Efficient — if You Don’t Think About It Too Much

A body of research reveals that intuition can be not only faster than reflection but also more accurate.

We’re fairly good at judging people based on first impressions, thin slices of experience ranging from a glimpse of a photo to a five-minute interaction, and deliberation can be not only extraneous but intrusive.In one study of the ability she dubbed “thin slicing,” the late psychologist Nalini Ambady asked participants to watch silent 10-second video clips of professors and to rate the instructor’s overall effectiveness.

Their ratings correlated strongly with students’ end-of-semester ratings.Another set of participants had to count backward from 1,000 by nines as they watched the clips, occupying their conscious working memory.Their ratings were just as accurate, demonstrating the intuitive nature of the social processing.

Critically, another group was asked to spend a minute writing down reasons for their judgment, before giving the rating.Accuracy dropped dramatically.Ambady suspected that deliberation focused them on vivid but misleading cues, such as certain gestures or utterances, rather than letting the complex interplay of subtle signals form a holistic impression.

“It’s as if you’re driving a stick shift,” says Judith Hall, a psychologist at Northeastern University, “and if you start thinking about it too much, you can’t remember what you’re doing.But if you go on automatic pilot, you’re fine.Much of our social life is like that.”

2.We Get Too Deeply Attached to Intuitive Beliefs

Once an intuition hits, we cling to it despite the dangers.Intuition can, for example, lead to all sorts of cognitive and social biases, like the anchoring effect.

Test-takers can’t shake the "first instinct fallacy."Three in four college students reported that when reconsidering an answer on an exam, their initial choice will usually turn out to be correct.But when erase marks on actual exams were analyzed, the reverse was true: Twice as many changed answers went from wrong to right as right to wrong.

“In general,” says psychologist Sascha Topolinski of the University of Cologne in Germany, “intuition is something emotional that makes you confident in an idea.‘You cannot take away this feeling from me.I do not trust this car seller.I can’t tell you why, but I’m confident I don’t like him.’”

3.Intuition Can Be Improved — With Practice

To have good intuitions in any domain requires a lot of practice.But not all domains are amenable to good intuitions.First, there must be regularities linking events and outcomes — the domain must have high “validity.”

Gary Klein, a psychologist at the Washington, D.C., consulting firm MacroCognition, has long explored the role of wisdom in the intuition of experts such as fire commanders, who can size up a burning building quickly.“Fires follow the laws of physics,” says Klein.

Whether you should trust your feelings should hinge not on the strength of those feelings — we have poor intuitions about intuitions — but on the structure of the domain you’re operating in.Look outward, not inward.

Second, you need clear feedback to hone your intuitive decisions.A review of the literature shows that weather forecasters, test pilots, and chess masters had more reliable expertise than psychologists, admissions officers, and judges.Outcomes in the latter’s areas are fuzzier and can play out long after you’ve made a decision.

That goes for much of everyday life, too."“You don’t do a diary and an Excel file where you write, ‘Okay, on October 1, I made this decision, or I bought this product,’ and so on,” Topolinski says.We lack hard data about what we do.

Good intuitions in one domain don’t guarantee good intuitions in another.As Gigerenzer puts it, "A soccer player who has great intuitions about scoring a goal may have bad intuitions about spending his money.So there cannot be a general test of intuition."Even within a domain, expertise can vary between different kinds of tasks.

We can use focused thinking not only to train our intuitive expertise over time but also to invite or avoid intuitions in the moment.Metaphors and sketches are excellent tools to help us reframe problems or see solutions more clearly.

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