自己对行业未来发展的认知

We live in the knowledge economy and this economy is under significant threat from AI.

我们生活在知识经济中,这种经济正受到AI的重大威胁。

The article will discuss the following:

本文将讨论以下内容:

  • A brief history of our story: How our evolution changed the valuing of certain attributes during the course of history.

    我们故事的简要历史 :我们的发展如何在历史过程中改变了某些属性的价值。

  • The problem with IQ: the rate at which machines are advancing is for more greater than the growth of our own intelligence.

    智商的问题:机器前进的速度比我们自身智慧的增长更大。

  • IQs are not created equal: Those with more money have higher IQs because of a better socio-economic status.

    智商不是平等的:由于社会经济地位更好,有更多钱的人智商更高。

  • The death of IQ and an equalisation of cognitive ability: Our last innovation will be to merge with a superior intelligence.

    智商的消亡和认知能力的均衡 :我们的最后一项创新将是与卓越的智力相融合。

我们历史的简短故事 (A brief story of our history)

We begin in the forests, at the inception of life as we know it where back then the most valuable attribute was strength, simply put if you were stronger or were able to carry a heavy load further and faster you were amongst the most valuable members of society. But we were different from other animals we had a brain that strangely gave us more intelligence we are able to learn faster and at higher complexities and adapt quickly. From the beginning our brains start building what we know today as the knowledge economy. Gradually across time we built houses, sparked fire the electricity, some more technology, the internet and eventually the 21st century arrived. Our evolutions have allowed us to realise that strength nor fitness is no longer a vital attribute in terms of achieving broader success in our society. The industrial revolution was the first sign of how technology could replace us but at the time it was only perceived the realm of strength and work product no emphasis was place on the impeding doom of how machines would one day take over intelligence demanding tasks. The intelligence frontier it could be argued was the only frontier to which humans had dominance in to not have that would mean as a species we have no advantage upon which we can thrive on.

我们从森林开始,从我们生命的起点开始,我们知道,那时最有价值的属性就是力量,简单地说,如果您更强大或能够越来越重地承担重担,您便是其中最有价值的成员之一社会。 但是我们不同于其他动物,我们的大脑奇怪地为我们提供了更多的智力,使我们能够更快地学习,以更高的复杂度进行快速适应。 从一开始,我们的大脑就开始建立我们今天所知的知识经济。 随着时间的流逝,我们开始建造房屋,点燃电力,更多技术,互联网以及最终进入21世纪。 我们的发展使我们认识到,力量和适应力不再是在我们的社会中取得更大成功的重要属性。 工业革命是技术可以取代我们的第一个迹象,但当时人们仅被视为力量和工作产品的领域,而没有将重点放在阻碍机器一天如何接管智能任务的厄运上。 可以争辩到的情报领域是人类在其中没有优势的唯一领域,这意味着作为一个物种,我们没有可以赖以生存的优势。

智商的问题:增长速度不够快 (The problem with IQ: Not increasing fast enough)

The Flynn effect is the substantial and long-sustained increase in both fluid and crystallised intelligence test scores. When intelligence quotient (IQ) tests are initially standardised using a sample of test-takers, by convention the average of the test results is set to 100 and their standard deviation is set to 15 or 16 IQ points. When IQ tests are revised, they are again standardised using a new sample of test-takers, usually born more recently than the first. Again, the average result is set to 100. However, when the new test subjects take the older tests, in almost every case their average scores are significantly above 100. Test score increases have been continuous and approximately linear from the earliest years of testing to the present. For the Raven’s Progressive Matrices test, a study published in the year 2009 found that British children’s average scores rose by 14 IQ points from 1942 to 2008. Similar gains have been observed in many other countries in which IQ testing has long been widely used, including other Western European countries, Japan, and South Korea.(Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect).

弗林效应是液体和结晶智力测验分数的显着且长期的增长。 最初,使用应试者的样本对智商(IQ)测试进行标准化时,按照惯例,将测试结果的平均值设置为100,将其标准偏差设置为15或16 IQ点。 修订智商测试后,它们会再次使用新的应试者样本进行标准化,这些样本通常比第一个更早出生。 同样,将平均结果设置为100。但是,当新的测试对象参加较旧的测试时,几乎在每种情况下,他们的平均分数都明显高于100。从最早的测试年份到测试的最高年份,测试分数一直是连续的且近似线性的现在。 对于Raven的渐进式矩阵测试,2009年发表的一项研究发现,从1942年到2008年,英国儿童的平均得分提高了14智商点。在智商测试长期被广泛使用的许多其他国家中,也观察到了类似的增长,包括其他西欧国家,日本和韩国。(资料来源: https : //en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Flynn_effect )。

Throughout the progression of time human intelligence has been on the rise this evident with increasingly rapid development of the world around us as we increase our average IQ’s collective we are able to archive more than was ever possible at any point prior to the present. The difference between today and our future compared to the past is that we did not really have anything that we had to compete with on an intelligence scale hence the gain in our IQs was just a further profession into development with each generational increase serving to move us away from all the other creatures on earth, separating the homo sapiens from else. But this all changed at the advent of Artificial intelligence and especially the realisation of the creation of the first neural network by Frank Rosenblatt which changed everything. For the very first time in our history the homo sapiens had created something who’s intelligence could surpass its own it now had competition and arguably and even more important reason to rapidly increase its IQ. But the Flynn effect tells us that takes us about 50 years to achieve a 14 point increase in IQ in the same period computes aided by artificial intelligence went from playing checkers and chess to literally driving cars un-aided. If this rate of progression increases as it will be probably do humans are in serious trouble and could possibly face a future in which they are not in control worst case scenario the AI could be programmed to save the world and upon analysis realise that the biggest threat to the world is us — Humans, and it would just proceed to kill every human being on earth to complete its task thereby saving the world.

在人类发展的整个过程中,随着我们周围平均世界的Swift发展,这一点显而易见。随着我们平均智商的提高,我们能够存档的档案比以往任何时候都多。 与过去相比,今天和未来之间的区别在于,我们并没有真正需要在智力规模上与之竞争的东西,因此,智商的提高只是随着职业的发展而发展,每一代人的进步都为我们提供了帮助。远离地球上所有其他生物,将智人与其他生物分隔开。 但是,随着人工智能的出现,这一切都发生了变化,尤其是弗兰克·罗森布拉特(Frank Rosenblatt)创建了第一个神经网络,这改变了一切。 智人在我们历史上第一次创造出一种可以超越自身智能的东西,现在它有了竞争,并且可以说是甚至更重要的原因来Swift提高其智商。 但是弗林效应告诉我们,在同一时期,我们需要大约50年的时间才能使智商提高14点,其中人工智能的作用是从下棋和下象棋到无人驾驶汽车。 如果这种增长速度如可能的那样增加,那么人类将面临严重的麻烦,并有可能面对他们无法控制的未来,在最坏的情况下,可以对AI进行编程,以拯救世界,并经分析意识到最大的威胁对我们来说,人类就是人类,它只会杀害地球上的每个人来完成其任务,从而拯救世界。

智商不是平等的 (IQs are not created equal)

The top 10 smartest countries in the world(Source:https://bit.ly/2P7pHPd)
全球最聪明的10个国家/地区(来源: https : //bit.ly/2P7pHPd )

The lowest recorded IQ scores are found in sub-Saharan African countries such as Somalia (68), Sudan (71), and Ethiopia (69).

智商得分最低的 国家是撒哈拉以南非洲国家,例如索马里(68),苏丹(71)和埃塞俄比亚(69)。

While this a highly controversial issue there is evidence that suggest that developed increases as a consequence of their wealth have higher IQs than developing countries. The same trend is observed when comparing the IQ test scores of kids from poor socio-economic background as compared to their wealthier counterparts.

尽管这是一个备受争议的问题,但有证据表明,由于财富增加而导致的发达智商要高于发展中国家。 比较经济和社会背景较差的孩子的智商测试成绩与较富裕的孩子的智商测试成绩时,观察到相同的趋势。

This study showed that children from lower socio-economic status(SES) backgrounds tend to perform on average worse on intelligence tests than children from more privileged homes as early as at the age of 2 years. Furthermore, SES accentuated these differences throughout childhood and adolescence: the 6-point IQ difference in infancy between children from low and high SES homes almost tripled by the time the children were 16 years old. Our findings confirm changes in intelligence throughout early life and suggest a meaningful relationship between IQ growth and socio-economic factors.(source:https://bit.ly/3jVdeMv)

这项研究表明,来自社会经济地位较低(SES)背景的儿童在智力测验中的平均表现要比来自较特权家庭的儿童早于2岁。 此外,SES加剧了整个儿童期和青春期的这些差异:SES房屋高低之间儿童的6点智商差异在儿童16岁时几乎翻了三倍。 我们的发现证实了整个早期智力的变化,并暗示了智商增长与社会经济因素之间的有意义的关系。(来源: https : //bit.ly/3jVdeMv )

IQ and the Wealth of Nations is a 2002 book in which the authors’ calculation of average IQ scores for 60 countries, based on their analysis of published reports is discussed. It reports their observation that national IQ correlates with gross domestic product per capita at 0.82, and with the rate of economic growth from 1950–1990 at 0.64. The authors believe that average IQ differences between nations are due to both genetic and environmental factors. They also believe that low GDP can cause low IQ, just as low IQ can cause low GDP. (Source:https://bit.ly/2X9GFRf)

智商与国家财富》是一本2002年出版的书,其中讨论了作者根据对已发表报告的分析得出的60个国家的平均智商得分。 它报告了他们的观察结果,即国民智商与人均国内生产总值相关,为0.82,与1950-1990年期间的经济增长率为0.64。 作者认为,国家之间的平均智商差异是由于遗传和环境因素造成的。 他们还认为,低GDP会导致低智商,就像低智商会导致低GDP一样。 (来源: https : //bit.ly/2X9GFRf )

This is a very serious problem because those who need an intelligence advantage are those who are at an intelligence disadvantage and this is further exacerbating the problem of inequality.

这是一个非常严重的问题,因为需要智力优势的人就是处于智力劣势的人,这进一步加剧了不平等问题。

智商的死亡和认知能力的均衡 (The death of IQ and an equalisation of cognitive ability)

Cruel is the irony that our own creation might spell the end of our existence as we know it. There is still time to stop what science fiction is obsessed with proving is inevitable, it is clear now that we cannot stop nor contain innovation but we can make one last major innovation to save ourselves. We shall for the very first time in our own history attempt to merge and live in a symbiosis with something that was otherwise foreign. The problem is not merely only to do with our brains but the very limited and inefficient input and output methods that we have created in order to interface with one another, machines and the world at large. Imagine then a brain to brain or brain to machine interface — essentially you think it and it happens. By using electrodes that can transmit electrical signals just as our brain do, this can stimulate our brains to do things beyond a magnitude of which we cannot yet conceive of, further accelerating our development. It will not keep us on par with the AI but the AI will become us and we will become the AI — a merged existence. We can essentially have all the knowledge accumulated throughout human history downloaded into brains within an instant and have it all at our disposal. With enough training and adaptation we will be able to control our “thought to execution” abilities the same way we are able to control where our eyes look. You will be able to program new software and capabilities into your own brain and also update it with new knowledge or frameworks of thinking. In this new way of life intelligence is less of an issue as it is in our present day and what an individual can be capable of doing is truly equally as limitless as the next individual. We would have created a post intelligence world, where intelligence as a construct might not matter anymore and perhaps more exciting is the possibilities of a world with completely democratised intelligence.

具有讽刺意味的是,我们自己的创造可能意味着我们存在的终结。 还有时间停止沉迷于证明的科幻小说是不可避免的,现在很明显,我们不能停止也不能遏制创新,但是我们可以做出最后的重大创新来拯救自己。 在我们自己的历史上,我们将首次尝试与其他本来就是异国的东西融合并生活在一起。 问题不仅与我们的大脑有关,而且还与我们为了与机器,整个世界相互连接而创建的非常有限且效率低下的输入和输出方法有关。 想象一下大脑到大脑或大脑到机器的界面-本质上您认为它确实发生了。 通过使用可以像我们的大脑一样传输电信号的电极,可以刺激我们的大脑执行超出我们尚无法想象的范围的事情,从而进一步促进了我们的发展。 它不会使我们与AI相提并论,但AI将成为我们,而我们将成为AI —合并的存在。 从本质上讲,我们可以将整个人类历史积累的所有知识立即下载到大脑中,并由我们处理。 经过足够的训练和适应,我们将能够像控制眼睛一样去控制“思考到执行”的能力。 您将能够在自己的大脑中编写新的软件和功能,也可以使用新知识或新思维框架进行更新。 在这种新的生活方式中,智能不再像今天那样成为问题,一个人可以做的事与下一个人一样无穷无尽。 我们本来会创建一个后智能世界,在该世界中,将智能作为构建不再重要,也许更令人兴奋的是拥有完全民主化的智能世界的可能性。

翻译自: https://medium.com/swlh/the-cognitive-future-we-are-building-8ed5c906d213

自己对行业未来发展的认知


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