更便捷的画决策分支图的工具_做出更好决策的3个要素
更便捷的画决策分支图的工具
Have you ever wondered:
您是否曾经想过：
How did Google dominate 92.1% of the search engine market share?
Google如何占领搜索引擎92.1％的市场份额？
How did Facebook achieve 74.1% of social media market share?
Facebook如何取得社交媒体市场份额的74.1％ ？
How did Microsoft win over 77.7% of the Desktop OS market share?
Microsoft如何赢得超过77.7％的桌面操作系统市场份额？
Aside from great vision, they all decided on how they do things, leading them to their triumph. Google decided to focus its search engine to provide better user experience, instead of monetization. Learning from the early adopters, Facebook decided to plan its growth, time its entry, and manage its public relation wisely. Microsoft decided to build Windows with compatibility in mind, reducing future issues so they can innovate even more.
除了有远见，他们都决定如何做事，带领他们走向胜利。 Google决定将重点放在搜索引擎上，以提供更好的用户体验，而不是通过获利 。 向早期采用者学习，Facebook决定计划其发展，安排其进入时间并明智地管理其公共关系 。 微软决定在构建Windows时考虑到兼容性 ，以减少将来出现的问题，以便他们可以进行更多创新。
They all made great decisions, bet on it — and won.
他们都做出了伟大的决定，下了赌注，并且赢了。
As one who’s in the data science field, being data-driven is a must. Deciding our actions based on data is a normal thing to do. It’s in the job description after all. Yet, my mentor once said, “be more than a data scientist”. I figured out what it means later on. Not all problems can be solved using data. Maybe it can, but is it the best approach?
作为数据科学领域的一员，必须以数据驱动。 根据数据确定我们的行动是正常的事情。 毕竟它在职位描述中。 但是，我的导师曾经说过，“不仅仅是一名数据科学家”。 后来我弄清楚了这是什么意思。 使用数据并不能解决所有问题。 也许可以，但这是最好的方法吗？
Other than data science and analytics, 2 more essentials could help us form better decisions. Finding the balance of all three is important since our decisions defines our future. Whether we want to solve personal matters, build a product, or start a business — we have to decide our next step.
除了数据科学和分析之外，还有2项基本要素可以帮助我们制定更好的决策。 找到三者之间的平衡很重要，因为我们的决定决定了我们的未来。 无论是要解决个人事务，生产产品还是开展业务，我们都必须决定下一步。
Take a look at this graph. Imagine you have built a startup. These bars represent your monthly product sales.
看一下这个图。 假设您已经建立了一家初创公司。 这些条形代表您的每月产品销售量。
- The first 8 bars show stable growth, which is good.前8个小节显示稳定增长，这很好。
- You experiment and manage to growth hack it by 3 times next month.您可以进行实验并设法在下个月将其黑客入侵3次。
- You’re happy, but have no absolute idea of what has happened.您很高兴，但是对发生的事情一无所知。
Keep this graph in mind as you read through.
阅读时请牢记此图。
分析工具 (Analytics)
According to Cambridge, analytics is a process in which a computer examines information using mathematical methods in order to find useful patterns.
根据Cambridge的说法，分析是计算机使用数学方法检查信息以找到有用的模式的过程。
Data is the new oil. Analytics help us achieve better business performance through insights from data. The demand for analytics is growing, giving rise to data scientists that became the sexiest job of the 21st century. Nowadays, most organizations have applied descriptive, prescriptive, and predictive analytics to unlock their full potentials.
数据是新的石油。 通过数据洞察，分析可帮助我们提高业务绩效。 对分析的需求不断增长，这催生了成为21世纪最性感的工作的数据科学家 。 如今，大多数组织已应用描述性，描述性和预测性分析来释放其全部潜力。
I work in analytics myself. Most of my output is used to decide strategic moves and discover answers to business problems. Furthermore, it could transform new opportunities into realities. Without data, it’s like wandering with no direction.
我自己从事分析工作。 我的大部分输出都用于决定战略举措和发现业务问题的答案。 此外，它可以将新机会转化为现实。 没有数据，就像无方向徘徊。
Google even got a Chief Decision Scientist; ensuring the use of data and analytics to fuel the decisions on their products — or they called it decision intelligence. They invest in it in exchange for better business decisions.
谷歌甚至有首席决策科学家 ; 确保使用数据和分析来推动其产品上的决策，或者他们称之为决策智能 。 他们在其中投资以换取更好的业务决策。
The beauty data is — it’s based on fact. We can only find the truth with data.
美容数据是-它基于事实。 我们只能用数据找到真相。
- Is your new business working well?您的新业务运作良好吗？
- Can we reduce the cost?我们可以降低成本吗？
- Which strategy is more efficient to put in place?哪种策略更有效？
- How is the future trend?未来趋势如何？
Analytics can answer all these questions.
Analytics(分析)可以回答所有这些问题。
Say you have used quantitative data to optimize processes and fuel your business strategy. Your startup is growing at a constant rate until the 8th month. But, is that it? Don’t you want to raise the ceiling and go beyond? What else can you do?
假设您已使用定量数据来优化流程并推动您的业务战略。 直到第8个月，您的创业公司都将以恒定的速度增长。 但是，是吗？ 您是否不想提高天花板并超越？ 你还能做什么？
直觉 (Intuition)
According to Cambridge, intuition is an ability to understand or know something immediately based on your feelings rather than facts.
剑桥大学认为 ，直觉是一种根据您的感受而不是事实立即理解或了解某些东西的能力。
How many times did you believe in your hunch and succeed? Probably a few times. Intuition just pops up in your mind before you know it. When done right, that instant idea may lead you to create major impacts.
您相信自己多少次成功了？ 大概几次。 直觉就突然出现在您的脑海中。 如果做得对，那立即的想法可能会导致您产生重大影响 。
People dreamt of going to space but very few are serious to think of how to get there. Elon Musk decided to believe his gut along with his vision. He then built an innovation, something that hasn’t existed yet. Now, he has proved that “SpaceX can do what it says it wants to do”.
人们梦想着要去太空，但是很少有人认真思考如何到达太空。 伊隆·马斯克(Elon Musk)决定相信自己的直觉和他的远见。 然后，他进行了一项创新，这还不存在。 现在，他证明了“ SpaceX可以做到其想做的事情 ”。
However, an intuition like his is one-of-a-kind. What about the rest of us? We can’t quantify the value of someone’s intuition but the good news is: every person can strengthen his/her intuition by using it over time.
但是，像他这样的直觉是独一无二的。 那我们其余的人呢？ 我们无法量化某人的直觉的价值，但好消息是：每个人都可以通过逐渐使用它来增强自己的直觉。
Still, it’s best practice to believe intuition when it’s validated by logic, reasoning, and data. I did trust my blind intuition at work once in a while and most of the time, it didn’t work well. Ideas build by feelings alone will more likely to fail. Relying on intuition alone can’t get you very far. After all, every journey is a marathon, not a sprint.
不过，最好的做法是在通过逻辑，推理和数据验证直觉时相信直觉。 我确实偶尔会相信我的盲目直觉，在大多数情况下，这种感觉并不奏效。 仅凭感觉建立的想法更有可能失败。 仅仅依靠直觉不会使您走得太远。 毕竟，每一次旅程都是一场马拉松，而不是短跑。
In the 9th month, you believe your intuition and implement a weird strategy. Your sales grew 3 times the next month. You’re happy. It’s unexpected. Although the real why remains a question.
在第9个月中，您相信自己的直觉并执行怪异的策略。 您的销售在下个月增长了3倍。 你很高兴。 真是出乎意料 虽然真正的原因仍然是一个问题。
研究 (Research)
According to Cambridge, research is a detailed study of a subject, especially in order to discover (new) information or reach a (new) understanding.
剑桥大学认为 ，研究是对一个主题的详细研究，特别是为了发现(新)信息或达成(新)理解。
Analytics are quantitative. Intuition is more or less a mystery. Research fills in the gap with its qualitative study. With it, we can gain a deeper understanding beyond feelings and numbers.
分析是定量的。 直觉或多或少是个谜。 研究填补了其定性研究的空白。 有了它，我们不仅可以获得感觉和数字，还可以获得更深刻的理解。
Apple took 1st place while Samsung took 6th place in the Best Global Brands 2019 by Interbrand. As a mobile phone vendor, they’re leading the industry with 30.9% and 24.8% market share worldwide. But that aside, let’s take a look at China’s Apple.
在Interbrand的2019年度最佳全球品牌中，苹果名列第一，三星名列第六。 作为手机供应商，他们以30.9％和24.8％的全球市场份额引领行业。 除此之外，让我们看看中国的苹果 。
Unlike those top 2 who innovate as well as set the bar for its users, Xiaomi approaches it the other way around. Lei Jun built an ecosystem where “fans” co-design and evangelize their products. Lei diligently took into account all the researches together with feedbacks, then — took the 1st place of market share in India, blowing Samsung away.
与那些创新并为用户设定标准的前2名小米不同，小米采用了相反的方法。 雷军建立了一个生态系统， “粉丝”可以共同设计和宣传他们的产品 。 Lei勤奋地考虑了所有研究和反馈，然后–占据了印度市场份额的第一位 ，将三星赶走了。
We can use logic on numbers but empathy on feedbacks. Research can answer problems by understanding people. It goes well with one habit from 7 Habits of Highly Effective People — “seek first to understand, then to be understood”.
我们可以对数字使用逻辑，而对反馈使用同理心。 研究可以通过了解人们来回答问题。 它与7个高效人的习惯中的一个习惯相得益彰 -“首先寻求理解，然后理解”。
I keep this habit in mind when faced with problems that include several people. Understanding their point of view — think — then offer a solution. The result: we decided on a solution faster, without needless arguments. If you’re a data science enthusiast, consider reading more about other habits here.
当遇到包括几个人的问题时，我谨记这个习惯。 了解他们的观点(思考)，然后提供解决方案。 结果：我们更快地决定了解决方案，而没有多余的争论。 如果您是数据科学爱好者，请考虑在此处阅读有关其他习惯的更多信息。
No matter how good your analytics & intuitions, people are always involved. Listen to their voice.
无论您的分析和直觉多么出色， 总会涉及到人们 。 听他们的声音。
Be aware though, too much research without good sense and data may lead to a false decision. One common mistake is poor research sampling: listening too much on the minority while overlooking the majority.
但是请注意，太多的研究缺乏良好的理智和数据，可能会导致错误的决定。 一个普遍的错误是研究抽样不力：在听少数派意见的同时却忽略了大多数意见。
At the start of the 10th month, you connect and chat with your customers. Not two but many. Now that you understand the reason behind your sudden growth — you strike a new record with ease in the following month.
在第10个月初，您可以与客户建立联系并聊天。 不是两个，而是很多。 现在，您了解了突然增长的原因-您将在下个月轻松创下新纪录。
Congratulations! ✋
恭喜你！ ✋
寻找平衡 (Finding the Balance)
We make decisions every day. Some good, some bad. Take the bad ones as our learning curve and strive for better decisions every day. We are who we decide to be.
我们每天都会做出决定。 有些好，有些坏。 将坏问题作为我们的学习曲线，每天努力做出更好的决定。 我们是我们决定成为的人。
“I am not a product of my circumstances, I am a product of my decisions.” — Stephen R. Covey
“我不是我所处环境的产物，而是我所做出决定的产物。” —斯蒂芬·R·科维
To sum it up, these three essentials interconnect and empower each other:
综上所述，这三个要点相互联系并相互赋能：
1 Analytics will support and validate your intuition & research. It helps you to better sustain your venture and reach its greatest potential. Even so, clinging too much on it will get you nowhere.
1 Analytics(分析)将支持和验证您的直觉和研究。 它可以帮助您更好地维持自己的事业并发挥最大的潜力。 即使这样，过分坚持下去也无济于事。
2 Intuition can yield massive impact and act as a guide to extract valuable insights from your analytics & research. Believe in your hunches while backing it up with your experience. Wrong hunches may lead to failure.
2直觉可以产生巨大的影响，并可以作为指导，从您的分析和研究中提取有价值的见解。 相信自己的预感，同时根据自己的经验进行备份。 错误的预感可能会导致失败。
3 Research enriches intuition & analytics by understanding the problem. Using qualitative insights, you can replicate your decision in more ways than one. Be sure to hear from all kinds of people though.
3研究通过了解问题来丰富直觉和分析。 利用定性见解，您可以通过多种方式复制决策。 但是一定要听取各种各样的人的意见。
Remember: big decision carries a big risk. Balance all these 3 essentials to mitigate it and find your next best action.
请记住：重大决策会带来巨大风险。 平衡所有这三个要素，以减轻压力并找到下一个最佳动作。
This post was inspired by “#FirstPrinciples Ep06 with Ravi Mehta”. Thank you for sharing!
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